Comments from US and Israel hinting at de-escalation offered relief to markets. A late-day rally occurred when Israel said it would no longer target energy infrastructure.

Today has the largest March triple-witching in 30 years with $5.7 trillion of options set to expire, creating headline risk.

ETF gold holdings were cut for the sixth straight day, with total gold held by ETFs at the lowest level since January 5th, yet gold is up 7.7% year-to-date.

Two scenarios will play out: 1) Energy prices remain higher for longer, eating into global growth, with the perception of rate cuts building, which is bullish for metals. 2) Oil prices decline due to reopened straits and less targeting of infrastructure, which takes pressure off the dollar and is also bullish for metals.