Odds of talks seem high based on White House messaging that Trump wants to end the war and secure permanent peace.

Notes that Trump has domestic issues he wants to focus on, which has manifested in him talking more about the economy and politics this week.

The news about the Strait of Hormuz being blocked again and Trump's previous comments create a cloud of doubt over when/if talks will happen and whether peace is as close as suggested.

Highlights the mixed messages from the White House since day one, exemplified by Trump announcing deals that haven't been confirmed by Iran.

There is no explanation for the disconnect, which is the problem. Markets listen to Trump's positive spin, but the reality is the deal hasn't been hammered out and details like 'nuclear dust' haven't been agreed to by Iran.

States this is a large weakness/question mark hanging over the prospect of peace that the White House hasn't explained.