• Jerome Powell
    Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on our achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Although some important federal government data have been delayed due to the shutdown, the public and private sector data that have remained available suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in September. Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling and inflation remains somewhat elevated. In support of our goals and in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point. We also decided to conclude the reduction of our aggregate securities holdings as of December 1. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments. Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. GDP rose at a 1.6% pace in the first half of the year, down from 2.4% last year. Data available prior to the shutdown show that growth in economic activity may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected, primarily reflecting stronger consumer spending. Business investment in equipment and intangibles has continued to expand, while activity in the housing sector remains weak. The shutdown of the federal government will weigh on economic activity while it persists. But these effects should reverse after the shutdown ends. In the labor market, the unemployment rate remained relatively low through August. Job gains have slowed significantly since earlier in the year. A good part of the slowing likely reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well. Although official employment data for September are delayed, available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low and that both households perceptions of job availability and firms perceptions of hiring difficulty continue to decline. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen in recent months. Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid 2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2% longer-run goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index suggest that total PCE prices rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending in September and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8% as well. These readings are higher than earlier in the year as inflation for goods has picked up. In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing for services. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up on balance over the course of this year on news about tariffs as reflected in both market and survey based measures. Beyond the next year or two or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal. Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today's meeting, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3 and 3/4 to 4%. Higher tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods resulting in higher overall inflation. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be relatively short-lived, a one-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent. And that is a risk to be assessed and managed. Our obligation is to ensure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.
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