Questions about the AI trade which started positive but now seems more negative, how to assess rest of year
David Ingles
Adrian Zurcher
Overall depends on Fed - if Fed keeps cutting or signaling more interest rate cuts, equity market has more upside
Adrian Zurcher
Fed neutral rate around 300bps, we're still at 400bps, so they have potential to cut below 300bps to become stimulative
Can we see similar success next year with positive correlations or have correlations fallen back
David Ingles
Adrian Zurcher
Outlook remains very healthy for next year - reacceleration of growth with lower interest rates, earnings still coming through
Adrian Zurcher
Dollar in structural decline - FX reserves 65% in USD but US economy only 25% of global economy, 13% of global trade
Macro side in China really weighing on - numbers last week quite soft with investment collapsing
David Ingles
Adrian Zurcher
China macro still weak, eventually PBOC will have to do QE, should be long duration in China
What does rotation mean for dividend names and financials apart from tech
Yvonne Man
Adrian Zurcher
Multi-asset investor believes in diversification - portfolios might be too concentrated to AI trade
Within AI trade, China has advantages in energy side - power grid and resources
David Ingles
Adrian Zurcher
Three key themes: AI itself, power and resources, and longevity/healthcare/robotics/demographics
Conversations with clients around gold for next year
Yvonne Man
Adrian Zurcher
Don't have gold strategically but best tactical trade for last 18 months - still see upside potential