• Market has been under pressure from higher oil, higher interest rates, and growth slowdown, but declines have been grudging. Asks if market is oversold and for tactical view.
    speaker1
  • Keith Lerner
    Market is confused. Bull market deserves benefit of doubt, but indicators moving toward oversold. Not enough panic/flush out yet. Anecdotally, not much fear. Ultimately likely has more downside short-term, but will be a buying opportunity. Mixed risk-reward on short-term basis.
  • S&P down ~5% month-to-date, 6% from highs - maybe not enough given events. But median stock down 16% from highs. Counterfactual: if stocks kept pace with earnings, S&P would be at 7200.
    speaker1
  • Keith Lerner
    S&P 500 wasn't extended going into this; has been moving sideways since tech peaked. More damage in small/mid caps. Higher oil, Fed on hold longer upends broadening trade. Maintaining some small cap exposure but thinks tech may come back alive given uncertainties, as it has repriced ~30% from highs.
  • Worst performers are defensive sectors (staples, healthcare). Asks if this is mispriced.
    speaker1
  • Keith Lerner
    Defensive sectors had big run-ups ahead of time (staples up double digits, gold big move). Now not acting defensive. Staples face inflation impact concerns and ability to push costs higher in mixed economy.
  • Asks for Fed expectations and if economy can withstand wait-and-see Fed plus higher oil.
    speaker1
  • Keith Lerner
    House view: still two rate cuts by year-end. Market can withstand Fed on sidelines. Economy/companies battle-tested (COVID, fast rate hikes, high inflation). Will be a slog. Watching oil prices and 10-year yield.
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