Confirms disconnect: stocks recouped two-thirds of losses, bonds maybe one-third, oil one-third, volatility three-quarters. Something's not right.

People are sounding the all-clear too quickly. Market backdrop has become too sanguine too quickly.

You ought to have higher prices for insurance. People waiting a little bit longer for the market to price some Fed easing, maybe a little bit less hiking by the ECB.

A Fed rate hike seems incredibly unlikely. The Fed speaks opaquely.

The Fed said many could advocate a hike if conditions are met, but most could contemplate a rate cut down the road. The Fed actually leaned dovish, not hawkish.

Confirms the Fed is really concerned about job market weakness, citing secondary indices like quits rate.

Suggests the Fed could talk about an Operation Twist to lower mortgage rates, but it's really unlikely.

Reasons: 1) Fed is uncomfortable with balance sheet changes now, buying Treasury bills, not the long end. 2) A new Fed chair transition is coming soon. Alternatively, the Treasury could change issuance volumes, issuing less long-term debt and more bills, which might be worth 20-25 basis points but isn't a long-term solution.