We are in a new earnings and economic cycle; the rolling recession has ended, leading to broadening out in consumer goods, financials, industrials, small/mid-caps.

S&P 7800 year-end target. Catalysts to break range: clarity on AI disruption and market testing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Risks to view: earnings cycle deterioration, Fed balance sheet hawkishness under Warsh causing liquidity problem, exogenous shock, or AI-driven labor displacement.

Not anti-big tech; story is rest of market earnings improving. Favors equal-weight S&P over cap-weight.

Fed independence has been fading for 20 years; Fed obligated to help financial markets operate (third mandate).