Introduces Stuart Glickman and sets up discussion on extreme oil market volatility, citing contradictory reports about tanker escorts and Iranian mine deployment.
Sam
Stuart Glickman
Characterizes market as 'crazy', notes WTI swung from $120 to below $80 to ~$85, and states the geopolitical risk premium is 'very much under-appreciated' by markets.
Asks where Glickman thinks WTI should be trading.
Sam
Stuart Glickman
States WTI 'north of a hundred bucks makes more sense' due to lack of clarity on shipping volumes through Strait of Hormuz.
Asks what the oil market needs to see to drive prices lower meaningfully, beyond symbolic gestures.
Sam
Stuart Glickman
Outlines two things needed to lower prices: 1) US/allies degrading Iran's ability to attack the Strait (removing mine threat, defending against land-based missiles), and 2) coordinated strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases.
Asks about potential for demand destruction from high pump prices and its political/consumer impact, referencing an upcoming CPI report.
Sam
Stuart Glickman
States the US consumer 'starts to run into trouble' when oil goes north of $95-100 per barrel, but $80-85 is a 'sweet spot' that allows energy companies to profit without inducing a recession.