Our job is to look ahead and weather the storm, not anticipate tomorrow's markets. We are sitting tight, went more defensive.

These markets are extremely difficult to trade; you don't know the next surprise.

We think the risk is more on the growth side than the inflationary side. The longer the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the more the risk increases.

If you consider 4.2 billion barrels of reserves with 25% accessible, and we lack 12 million barrels a day... that gives us until the end of May before we have a severe shortage.

8 million can be redirected through U.S. pipelines and other means.

We give a recession a 40% probability in our base case.

Clients are now trying to diversify their booking centers, not just investments. Switzerland offers stability, strong currency, and regulatory framework.

We are in the business of trust, which requires expertise, intimacy with client needs, and reliability.

Long-term, we might see a bit of dedollarization. Clients overweighing U.S. assets are starting to consider rebalancing towards Europe and other major markets.

If you believe the dollar will be eventually weaker, you might want to diversify away from the U.S. The crisis has put that on hold.