We are on an escalatory cycle; oil prices 'have a long way they could go up.' We could be in a 'very different price environment' in 24 hours. Risk of damage to Gulf infrastructure from retaliation is a heavy, under-priced cost with global ramifications for petrochemicals, not just crude.

Mentions strange backwardation in oil markets.

We lack perfect information on damage to refineries, ports, aluminum plants, and data centers. It will take time to assess second-order effects. Concerned about recent attacks on Saudi petrochemical sites.

Already over $4. Inflation will hit via food, consumer goods, packaging, and wood materials. A bigger barometer is the 30-year mortgage rate (~6.5%), which won't go down in an inflationary environment, pressuring politicians ahead of midterms.

Connects energy prices to broader inflation and housing costs.

A toll system is not tenable long-term, leading to military escorts and prolonged intervention (mining, attacks), keeping prices 'higher for longer.' More likely is a much further price hike with continued conflict; prices could go 'much higher' than $140, especially if pipeline diversions are attacked.