Introduces Nassim Taleb, notes gold spike and market volatility since October.
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speaker2
Not commenting on metal prices, but sees structural move: U.S. losing reserve currency status, deficit problem, and geopolitical risks reducing incentive to hold dollars.
Asks about tariff policy uncertainty amid resilient earnings and K-shaped recovery.
speaker1
speaker2
Tariffs can be smart but execution is erratic, creating poor investment incentives; they act as regressive tax, exacerbating inequality.
Asks about AI-driven sell-off in stock market.
speaker1
speaker2
Historically, pioneers (car, airline, PC companies) often lose; AI winners may not be current names; expects bankruptcies in software space.
speaker2
Previous stock rally driven by few names; gains will be eradicated, leading to broadening but also large drawdowns.
Notes Universa's >100% returns, asks about tail event strategy.
speaker1
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Universa hedges clients non-linearly against crises, making more during drawdowns and retaining gains.
Asks if volatility will continue and hedging still needed.
speaker1
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Hedging always needed; drawdowns not easily predictable; current volatility underrepresents real tail risks from deficit, geopolitics.
Asks about Iran blocking oil, potential $100 oil spike risk.
speaker1
speaker2
Hard to predict oil price effects; but Western world cannot afford 1970s-style oil shock (stagflation not fixable by monetary policy).
Asks most underpriced risk and next black swan.
speaker1
speaker2
Tail risks across all sectors underpriced; risk is large drawdown in stocks, not just any drawdown.
Asks most investable region.
speaker1
speaker2
Won't comment on investment policies, but personally holds tail hedges in metals due to structural, long-term move driven by central banks/BRICS accumulating gold.