The ongoing conflict has risen inflation concerns, strengthening the dollar index and causing interest rates to rise. Gold, typically a safe haven, experienced a liquidation event due to intense pressure.
Phil Street
The US dollar turned lower after reports of Iranian operatives discussing terms to end the war, leading to a weaker dollar and pushing gold and silver higher overnight.
Phil Street
Yesterday's dramatic sell-off saw ETF outflows in gold, silver, and platinum, with traders possibly trimming positions due to increased volatility and reluctance to hold overnight.
Phil Street
Stock futures are rebounding overnight, with the Russell 2000 leading. The Russell benefits from AI adoption by small businesses and would be helped by Fed rate cuts due to their debt loads.
Phil Street
Key data (ADP, ISM Services, Fed Beige Book) will impact interest rate expectations. A resolution to the conflict could lead to a weaker dollar, higher rate cut expectations, and a broad relief rally.
Phil Street
The dollar index jumped above 99, pushing back Fed cut expectations from July to September. The Euro is pressured from safe-haven flows to the dollar and the energy shock as a major oil importer.
Phil Street
10-year Treasury yields spiked nearly 20 bps to a multi-week high around 4.10% as the conflict drove energy prices up, reigniting inflation fears and overwhelming safe-haven bond buying.
Phil Street
S&P 500 gamma exposure is negative, meaning dealers sell in falling markets and buy in rising ones, amplifying moves in both directions and creating large intraday wicks.
Phil Street
Asian stocks extended their selloff, with Korea's KOSPI having its biggest ever selloff (down 12%, halted). A snapback there could be a precursor for other markets.
Phil Street
He wrote an article on playing the silver market for a potential move up to $150, with many implementing strategies on the 100-ounce contract.