IEA decision to release over 3 months gave impression war will stay long time, causing market panic. 400M barrels is serious but mitigation, not solution. Historic event, historic loss.

Only solution is end war, end violence, reduce insurance for free movement.

If war ends tomorrow, crisis lasts 2+ months. Bottleneck in Strait, bringing production back takes time, LNG longer.

Saudi pipeline shift amazing, built for this scenario in 1980s.

Prices will keep going up until we see demand destruction. No way to mitigate such amount except what we've heard. Big event not only oil: helium, fertilizers, methanol, NGLs, LNG.

You cannot make computer chips without helium.

Absolutely. Fertilizer industry depends on natural gas/LPG from Gulf. Methanol goes into food production. LNG tankers switching destinations, panic causing hoarding, 14 countries stopped exporting products.

Problem can't be solved easily. Need governments to change insurance laws, give companies threshold then government cover after.

Two tankers carrying naphtha/products hit, full (new development). Would Iran cause tanker explosion covering area when they have desalination plants? Big question if mines story is hoax.

If war moves to water, this is nuclear war.

Absolutely. After June event, Xi-Putin met, revived pipeline from Siberia. Trump policies created sense of energy as national security issue, causing problems in EU, Canada.

Biggest winners from Strait closure: Trump and Putin. Everyone else loser. Gulf countries (Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar) biggest losers, EU second, India after.