We now have a ceasefire. I pray it turns into a durable peace. In that case, we could see a somewhat faster recovery. But the uncertainty has been profound, and we all need to learn to operate in an environment of higher and permanent uncertainty.

Let me just say that even if the war ends tomorrow, it would take quite some time for the recovery to kick in. Not only because of the infrastructure destruction. Tankers are slow-moving vessels. A tanker that leaves today would take 40 days to reach the Pacific Islands. So, we have to keep in mind that the impact is already baked in.

Why are markets so optimistic? I think part of the reason is because there is a high concentration of financial assets in the United States. The US economy is doing well, it is relatively not so impacted because the US is an exporter, not importer, and that creates that picture of dynamism and vibrancy. But I can tell you that's not the story of the rest of the world. In the rest of the world, already there is a lot of pain.

What it means is that markets are geared by events in the largest economy that are really positive. The United States is the only large economy that has high productivity growth and markets are seeing that. Technology optimism is here. Markets are rushing on it. But should there be more caution? I would argue yes. Because what we are seeing in terms of supply chain disruptions is already quite significant. And with every day that passes, that tanker is not leaving for a destination and that delays the rebound of the world economy.