Introduces blowout jobs report (130k vs 65k est) and asks how to reconcile with prior forecasts for weaker jobs.
Matt Miller
Pierre Yared
Acknowledges blowout report exceeding forecasts. Attributes strength to demographic changes and reduction in immigration, making it remarkable given lower breakeven expectations.
Questions necessity of Fed rate cuts given strong labor market and ongoing high inflation problem for consumers.
Matt Miller
Pierre Yared
Argues inflation is trending down, with 3-month rates within normal ranges. States Fed must balance dual mandate and follow strategy review focusing on labor market type.
Asks if pressuring Fed to move away from inflation focus is a mistake given strong jobs, inflation not at target, and presidential comments on growth.
Dani Burger
Pierre Yared
Fed should be forward-looking, not backward-looking. Future outlook shows significant productivity growth from supply-side policies, deregulation, tax incentives, and AI explosion, which is disinflationary and consistent with a healthy labor market.
Asks what drove unexpected labor force growth given immigration policy changes.
Matt Miller
Pierre Yared
Best to look at census data over time. Over past year, population growth has declined relative to trend, consistent with census evidence, and this should continue.
Notes 95% of job growth came from healthcare/social assistance, asks if this makes growth less healthy.
Dani Burger
Pierre Yared
Must consider base; most jobs are in services proportionally. With an aging society, more employment growth in healthcare is natural.
Asks if manufacturing jobs will increase as president's policies take hold, given recent gains.
Matt Miller
Pierre Yared
Points to strong non-residential construction growth, consistent with policies driving factory investment. Anticipates more manufacturing jobs. Notes strong manufacturing value-added growth, productivity, and wage growth.
Asks about trend of falling government jobs.
Dani Burger
Pierre Yared
Administration aims to right-size government, currently at lowest level of federal workers since 1966. Workers reallocated to private sector, which is how to grow the economy efficiently.