Asks about the shape of the economic rebound and why it should be U-shaped.
Romaine Bostick
Jim Caron
The economy will be U-shaped because 2025 represents a mid-cycle slowdown trough, with fiscal stimulus from Trump tax policies ($160-170B to consumers) leading to faster growth in late 2026.
Asks about inflation risk and whether it will be kept in check next year.
Romaine Bostick
Jim Caron
Higher inflation is the risk to the U-shaped recovery view, but sees low probability because tariff effects will be worked through and weak labor market will keep wage/goods inflation in check.
Asks if we're back to 'bad news is good news' regime with weakening labor market.
Katie Greifeld
Jim Caron
Markets are relying on Fed to cut rates 1-2 times or more; if jobs re-accelerate rapidly, we'd talk about rate hikes instead, which would change narrative and create deeper slowdown.
Asks what Fed having to cut rates means for popular trades like yield curve steepening.
Katie Greifeld
Jim Caron
Fed lending support to riskier assets; yield curve should continue steepening but back-end yields will moderate due to bank buying of treasuries from deregulation policies.