Broad bull market intact (S&P near highs, equal-weight S&P up 6-8% YTD), but ugly sell-off in software groups has metastasized, creating a perception disconnect.

Mag 7/Nasdaq has been 'ice cold' for 4-5 months, dead money since Oct 29 peak. The trade working is the opposite of AI disruption: oil field services, copper mining, metals & mining, chemicals, energy.

China is a key exporter of disinflation/deflation (CPI +0.2%, consensus for 2-4% deflation in real estate), which should keep global inflation in check.

Japan is a primary idea; Nikkei at 57k, top performer. Takaichi administration continues Abe's fiscal expansionary policy, likely providing demand-side stimulus via war spending.

Not so much. Bitcoin is software, chart is ugly, rolling over, highly correlated with Nasdaq.

Bullish on gold. Market signaling a 'pair trade on analog versus software.' Materials/energy up, comm services/tech cold. Bitcoin (software) rolling over, gold (analog) going up on 4-5 month charts. Sees gold breaking back above $5,000, $6,000 more realistic than $4,000.

Generally likes small caps, but notes perception of ugliness is wrong; Russell 2000 chart is doing just fine, confirming a broad bull market.