Oil will open sharply higher; market is in denial about supply disruption magnitude; 10M bpd upstream production shut in, rising to 13M; physical crude trades $30-40 above futures.

Damage already done; all floating oil buffers drawn down; attacks reduce spare capacity; biggest energy shortfall in history.

Confirms denial; reiterates physical/futures discrepancy is unprecedented.

Agrees; situation not binary; ship entry cost was $40/bbl vs $6 outside; normalization is gradual, taking months; satellite shows only 5-6 days inventory.

Mines rumors add anxiety; production restart slow in Iraq/Kuwait; even with flows, production gap persists for weeks.

Straight closure gives Iran biggest leverage in 40 years; resolution takes longer than weeks; Iran more likely to concede on nuclear issues than strait; US allows Iranian oil flows to cap prices.

US is largest producer but faces global market conflict; allows Russian/Iranian oil to prevent price spikes.

Toll is worst-case scenario; GCC wouldn't agree; would mean 3-5 years of much higher steady-state oil prices; floor of $80-100/bbl; physical price at $150 vs futures at $100.

Alternative routes take 5-10 years; Iran unlikely to pick fight with all Gulf exporters.

No; futures trade 1.5-2 months out; prompt physical trades at premium; deferred contracts not bid up due to narrative US won't allow high prices pre-midterms; roll-up trade continues; prices need to be higher than $82 forward.

Massive recession could balance market, risk rising daily.