Market wisdom at a glance * SignalTube

Asks what Colin expects the Fed to say at the upcoming meeting, given it's a central bank-heavy week.

Sam

Colin Martin

Expects no change to Fed policy. Anticipates updated projections (dot plot) may show higher inflation, slightly slower growth, and higher unemployment versus December. Stresses the importance of Powell's wording on how the committee views the conflict's duration and economic impact.

Questions the macro data setup going into the meeting, noting Q4 GDP was revised down and the jobs market is mixed.

Sam

Colin Martin

Argues the economy was in a good place pre-conflict, with Q4 GDP in line with a 2%+ trend and labor market showing signs of stabilization. The key unknown is conflict duration. Advises investors and the Fed to be patient and not overreact.

Asks if investors should chase higher yields internationally, noting UK gilt yields have moved 50bps while US yields have been rangebound.

Sam

Colin Martin

Notes big moves in global bond markets. Their outlook is shifting: the 10-year Treasury yield is up 25-30 bps recently. If US yields stay elevated and interest rate differentials don't compress, it could reduce demand for other currencies. The dollar remains the reserve currency and should stay supported in the short run.