Argues for a productivity growth acceleration driven by AI, semiconductors, robotics, quantum, fintech, and other technologies. Believes US potential growth is already above 2% and will be closer to 4% by the end of the decade.

Rejects the argument that higher growth with lower inflation justifies lower rates. Contends that higher potential growth requires a higher equilibrium real interest rate (both long and short). Illustrates that with 3-4% growth, the real Fed funds rate should be at least 3%, leading to a nominal rate around 4% even if inflation is 1%.

Yes, there is a risk of overheating. Doubts the Fed Chair can force significant rate cuts given strong growth, elevated inflation, and committee dynamics. Data doesn't justify lower rates; maybe one cut later in the year if inflation falls slightly.

Growth will accelerate further in 2024 due to AI tailwinds, easy financial conditions, high stock market, monetary easing in the pipeline, and delayed fiscal stimulus.

His 2022 book 'Megathreats' outlined dystopian trends (lower growth, higher inflation) which materialized. It also had a speculative chapter on AI/tech upside. Since those optimistic tech developments have now materialized, they are 'first order' and trump 'second order' issues like tariffs, fiscal deficits, and political instability.

Near-term, AI will boost investment (e.g., data centers), increasing labor demand at full employment. Long-term, by 2040-2050, AGI could lead to 10% growth with 80% unemployment. The solution is redistribution via a larger, means-tested UBI funded by taxing capital winners to maintain aggregate demand and social stability.