Separate markets versus economy. Economy is still extremely strong with decent loan demand, well-controlled delinquencies, and consumer spending growing 5-7% year-over-year.

Businesses entered this period in strong financial shape. Consumers are spending more on gas but adjusting in other categories as expected.

Everyone is nervous - businesses aren't laying off but aren't hiring to the extent they would. Current impacts are neutral to just beginning to see potential for negative impacts, but not yet meaningful.

The real question is how long oil and gas prices stay high. A retail apparel client reported polyester and nylon prices up 25%, a huge cost driver beyond just transportation.

These cost increases don't even account for transportation or other knock-on effects. Businesses have long-term contracts that provide temporary protection.

If conflict ends and production returns in reasonable time, impact on consumer spend won't be damaging. If it goes on longer, it can be more damaging.