• Mary, I'm not sure how you're reading this because President Trump, as we've established already, is known for bluster, certainly before a meeting. The market's though. think they just got a big reality check. Now suddenly we do care about trade with China. do you see this as the actual decoupling that we've been talking about?
    Joe Matthew
  • Mary Lovely
    I don't think it's the actual decoupling, but I think some of us have been a bit mystified as to why the markets have been so sanguine all along. Many of the deals, even with our allies, are still basically unsettled. And we've been expecting this one to not just be a smooth ride to happiness with some lower level of tariffs. So it was a very precipitous, but not entirely unexpected.
  • So we haven't heard as far as I know anything formal in response from Beijing to the post this morning or now this hundred percent tariff move. Do you suspect that the meeting is as good as canceled now or does this drop President Xi to talk with Trump.
    Joe Matthew
  • Mary Lovely
    Well, obviously we're seeing tit for tat in a different way. During Trump won with a trade war, we saw a tit for tariff on tariff rates. Now we're seeing a whole host of commercial relations being put to the test. You know the US has fees on ships, Chinese ships, that land on US ports. China has no, these are American chips. Chips, sorry. We have export controls, they have export controls. We have tariffs, they have tariffs. We have placed a number of their companies on antiteles. American companies can't do business with them, except with certain permissions. China has done the same. So I think China has learned how to play this game. And President Trump knows that. He has said himself that he thinks the US has three times, the firepower that the Chinese do. Many people don't think that's true, not in the short run, at least. We haven't really prepared for this. We're still dependent on China many areas. And the Chinese here are speaking with their policies, not through their PR people.
  • Mary Lovely
    I think that the narrative of this tariff volatility and uncertainty is bad news for the whole space. You will bring back a lot more volatility into the markets. I think there will be concerns on both sides. Both countries linked to China and Chinese exports. There's some short-term leverage at gameplay here, but there's also long-term gameplay by the Chinese.
  • Mary Lovely
    If President Trump goes through with 100 percent tariffs and that the Peterson Institute does we're estimating that the average tariff on China is about 50% already. So you can imagine 150%. You are going to see, we're already seeing enormous amounts of avoidance and evasion. So it's going to send these supply chains into real adaptation with a lot of things happening that we do not want to see in the global economy.
  • Mary Lovely
    Traders really piling into treasuries as you say. Gold got another bid. The yellow metal has been on a record tear. It moved about 1% higher as well.
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