Notes businesses are hiring more part-time instead of full-time, and prices are rising mainly for fuel/gasoline - the leading edge of inflation.

First Beige Book since war started suggests economy is starting to bear economic scars of war, even if not yet in data.

IMF experts are almost unanimous that markets are acting prematurely - damage will be worse than expected because oil will take much longer to flow again.

Even if war ended today, prices won't come down quickly. Need absolute end to war plus Strait of Hormuz traffic resuming for price relief.

This oil price issue could reach point where people have no money for other spending, destroying demand and slowing economy.

President likely cannot fire Powell without cause, and current allegations lack substance. If Warsh not confirmed by May 15, Powell stays as FOMC chair.

Legal fight possible over board chair if Warsh not confirmed, but Powell remains head of Open Market Committee regardless.

Two ways that could happen: probe dropped but Powell stays, or Tillis changes vote for Warsh while probe continues and Powell stays.

More likely Warsh not confirmed in time, or confirmed and Powell steps down as chair and governor.