Central banks shouldn't respond just to an oil price move; they must consider inflation across the whole economy. The Fed can't do much about global oil prices.

Expects CPI report to show no significant imbalances or underlying inflation pressures, which should give the Fed comfort not to overreact to an oil price spike.

That's unrealistic. A prolonged period of higher oil prices would only worry the Fed if it caused second-round effects like a wage-price spiral or profit-led inflation.

The Fed will focus on the labor market and possible negative reaction to uncertainty from the conflict, which could be a reason to cut rates, not raise them.

Certain ECB council members always say any event is an excuse to raise rates. The ECB is good at doing nothing.

The US labor market is not as bad as the February numbers seem; it's roughly flat. Job security allows middle-income consumers to draw down savings to afford shocks like higher energy costs.

Bank of Japan probably wants to raise rates, but government isn't enthusiastic, and BoJ isn't independent. A hike is plausible later this year. Bank of England is moving towards rate cuts as underlying inflation pressures weaken.