States only two crude cargoes (one 2M barrel supertanker, one 700K barrel tanker) made it out in past week during brief opening, with no current movement as Iran has closed the strait again.

Explains that ships initially moved toward strait after Iranian statement but were halted and turned back by Iranian military at northern point.

States significant number of shipowners had enough comfort to start moving when given green light by Iran.

Suggests if a deal could hold, ships would start moving out of Persian Gulf, but uncertain how many would go back in due to risk.

Explains the risk: taking ship into closed area assuming it can get out in 4 days to a week, but with rapid changes, nobody has that confidence.