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Prood continuing to fall. A real question here with the over supply under surveillance this morning, earnings from the oil giants crossing this hour. Exxon shares our lower with the plans for major expansion projects, Chevron rising after posting strong results, joining us now, Goldman Sachs's head of oil research down Stroy van Dan. Thank you so much for being here. What a year on all the commodity fronts. I'm just wondering with the oil giants, what this tells you about the path of production in the months and years to come.

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Daan Struyven

Yes, so I think those earnings help us to check in on the key assumption that global supply will continue to grow. We estimate actually in the fourth quarter of the year on the year for your basis global production will be up 4% that's 4 times more than in a normal normal year.

Daan Struyven

And that in combination with the global stock state that are rising supports our view that you sort of have another $10 per barrel of downside for oil prices over the next year.

With brand nex here averaging 56 dollars per barrel. Does it look like a race to the bottom though? You have eggs on talking about the fact that they have low levels of debt, so they can take on more debt and finance more projects. Is that what the path looks like? So I think 25 and 26 are pretty exceptionally in how much supply we expect to come to the markets, coming both from coral peck producers, like Saturday, but the UAE and others.

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Daan Struyven

And also from production in the Americas especially from. Let's in America actually Brazil, Brazil, and Guiana. If you look out further down the horizon, we see a sharp slow down in supply growth from 27 onwards. So we really think of this as the last jump in global supply and that's why I think prices will probably come down somewhat more next year, the last leg lower before we likely recover as the man probably keeps growing while supply starts to moderate.