Oil is the most important domino in the markets right now, with elevated levels prompting concerns over inflation and the rate path ahead.

Oil prices moved higher Thursday with US crude hitting $80/barrel, which matters because elevated energy prices boost inflation according to economists.

For the Federal Reserve, elevated oil prices complicate everything - Fed officials leaning toward rate cuts now sound less certain, and markets are dialing back expectations.

Some speculate Trump's Fed pick Kevin Warsh would still lower rates despite the oil spike, though it presents a challenge.

A sustained oil rally may end up rewriting the Fed's rate path going forward.