The situation is tenuous. Both actors believe they have the strategic upper hand, making them unwilling to offer concessions for a real ceasefire.

Iran may try to trade control of the Strait for relief from the US blockade or for a stronger ceasefire in Lebanon.

Unlikely. Hardline IRGC elements now dominate decision-making and are less likely to offer concessions, having been betrayed by past deals.

A potential outcome is a weak deal or ceasefire extension just to prevent a resumption of active warfare, but a promise to stop enrichment is not believable.

Escalation would likely be asymmetric but telegraphed (e.g., Houthis targeting Red Sea shipping, Israel targeting Iranian energy infrastructure).

The alternative to diplomacy is a weak ceasefire that continues the 'Schrodinger's Strait' disruption or a widespread return to hostilities.

The conflict is hastening the renewable energy transition. Diversifying away from oil dependence is the smart step for countries.

Gulf states are seriously looking at alternative supply routes. This is the fourth major trade disruption (COVID, Ukraine, last year's Iran war, now this), demonstrating increasing vulnerability of chokepoints.