Oil must eventually flow from Persian Gulf; US will need agreement with Iran. Must look past short-term tensions to rest of year. US economy has enough momentum for slow growth.

There's no other endgame possible - Iran will need to export too.

Lowering GDP estimates slightly due to oil effect and weaker-than-expected refunds. Expecting Congress to pass tariff rebate checks or other stimulus before November elections to boost economy.

Refunds will slowly get back to importers; Congress will find a way to justify stimulus to ensure strong economy by Q4.

Inflation could reach 3.5-4% year-over-year by June, but will fall to 2% by year-end and below 2% next year due to lower oil, falling tariffs, and declining shelter costs.

Oil and tariff issues are temporary; economy only capable of 1.5% long-term growth.

Working-age population shrinking by 20,000 people per month means all economic growth must come from AI productivity, but there are limits to what it can achieve.

Productivity numbers are good and will be good from AI, but only so much can be hoped for.