Current market action is healthy, reflecting broadening away from tech concentration; tech is worst performing sector but markets near highs due to rotation into cyclical recovery and AI beneficiaries beyond infrastructure.

Still likes tech story but expects period of consolidation as companies grow into earnings; sees opportunities in US industrials/power and globally in non-US markets like EM Asia ex-Japan.

Base case based solely on low double-digit earnings growth with multiples contracting slightly; bull case requires broadening cyclical recovery, earnings growth beyond tech, AI productivity benefits translating to action, leading to multiple expansion on mid-teens earnings growth.

Bullish on gold for 18 months as diversification play for dollar exposure by central banks/institutions/individuals; demand remains strong with geopolitical/inflation diversification benefits. Cautious on silver as more speculative, smaller market hard for central banks, industrial uses face substitution risk from higher prices.

Not sell America but 'buy less America'; rational rebalancing after US stocks grew from 45% to 70% of global equity market; with US policy uncertainty increasing, but fundamentals strong, inflation controlled, dollar will stabilize and flows return.

Bear case would be recession causing ~20% drawdown, but sees very low probability; expects volatility due to elevated valuations, with risk being expectations too high needing time to grow into.