• actually in a rupturing, Brinnell almost Hawks thing. He served as a senior advisor in Middle East Negotiator for former president Biden. He's now a global managing partner with TWG. sorry. Amazing to just be. watching this, I think, almost what do you thoughts?
    Host
  • Amos Hochstein
    I think it's an incredible day and incredible moment, a lot of credit to the administration and to Jared Kushner in particular, as he would cough. for getting to this day. But... 20 people who've been in hell. for two years as prisoners and hostages are now. at least back to their families and the blood shedding Gaza. stopping. I mean This is really a momentous day.
  • Right up to when the hostages were released, I think people were... still holding their breath. uh... most and now we start holding it about i guess the the additional phases of of the agreement and how that works. But this has got to be a pretty good son. There was no last minute. Um... problems or roadblock. I mean, I don't know what we could have expected. Were you expecting this to come off? Like it did or did you think there might be some less? minute hitches based on Hamas.
    Host
  • Amos Hochstein
    No, I didn't really think it would be hitches. I mean, even in the ceasefire in January. the releases happen as they were intended. I think that also all the pressure and the summit tomorrow and so on I think that The focus was already beyond today's. uh... hostage release i think the real question is what do you do from here and i don't want to take away Today is a tremendously great moment and again. I'm grateful to my successors. and to our successors who you know in the Trump administration, Jared and Steve in particular for doing this. But I do think it's hard. One of the issues that Israel always had was... Do we withdraw? before. There's the day after plan and place, meaning because the minute we withdraw, Hamas takes over. And so what we've seen is how mass has in fact taken over. the territory in Gaza that they are in control of, which is not all of it, of course. Um... and... So the concern now is how do you bring in another force? when they are ready to re-asserting control. requires them to or. forces them to lay down their arms. and stop their control of Gaza and that's I think going to be a very difficult moment. and difficult thing to achieve. as time goes by.
  • Right. and I'm wondering You know what what what what that what your view is on the likelihood of this playing out. Exactly as imagined by the negotiators.
    Host
  • Amos Hochstein
    I think that the all the phases beyond this one, there are no details behind it. I think that negotiators decided as a tactic to get to a yes first and then figure out the... details later and I think that's probably the right. It was the right approach. but that means that we don't really have anything that's going to... happen.
  • happen.
    Host
  • Amos Hochstein
    Um... in the coming days and weeks. And I think that we're probably going to be frozen here. for a little while. as they figure out what the next step is. And I think we have two pictures that we have to look at. One is Israel and its neighbors, which is Israel Hamas, and what happens in Gaza. What happens to the West Bank? But then you have the bigger picture which is what happens in the middle east. are end. Can you get to normalization in Saudi Arabia, which I think you can? I can get once that happens, do you get broader normalization with Muslim countries? So I think that we're really at an critical moment, but also one that has a lot of potential. for the Middle East.
  • Things happen gradually and then they happen all at once, I think. someone said that I'm not sure how to view this because I was thinking about going all the way back to. I know it. think of the names. Almost likeNOAR CEDOKER. And there are 3 Gallery pots. go to my air. I think about how long this has been such an intractable. issue. that the world has faced. Now sooner or later. We were hoping for some type of, they're lack of a better word like an Arab spring or a move into the 21st century for that part of the world. and more closely resemble. Um... the West. Is this really it? Do you think in and... Like I said, it's been gradual. Like slowly we've seen certain countries that we used to think no way it would ever happen. One by one, it started happening. until we got to this point. Is it possible to be optimistic? about the whole region right now.
    Host
  • Amos Hochstein
    one i think you should always be optimistic that's what uh... makes us able to deliver. Bye. Look. I think this is still an intractable. crisis and and conflict. You still have the West Bank that is a... a very difficult spot. with settlements growing. and agitation between the... the palcin population and the Israeli population. growing, not diminishing. Gaza is still 2 million people that are hostile to Israel and Israel, hostile to Gaza. So you still have because of all of that is not yet. uh... disarmed in Lebanon, you have a lot of dark forces. So I think you have two different Middle East. You have the Middle East of the Persian of the Arabian Gulf. UAE led the way with Bahrain, but now it's Saudi joins. That is one Middle East that is focused exactly as you said on the 21st century. on becoming a powerful economies. that are, you know, where oil is only their bonus, where they can have a balanced budget without oil. and doing that through technology and growth. And then you have other countries, the Middle East, that are. Still very hostile to the West. economies that are in at a very different place, very low. economies with Um... with failed states. So I think you still have these two Middle East and I don't think we should fall before by one side. that is focused on growth while the other side is still. at near conflict all the time.
  • And what is your sense though of? whether Hamas ever gets affected with disarmed. because as long as they have arms, doesn't this... remain an intractable issue.
    Unknown Speaker
  • Amos Hochstein
    Yes, and that's what I think, that's why I said before, I think is very difficult to imagine. them laying. their arms. What you're seeing already the second every place where Israel's withdrawn. Hamas is reasserted, it's control. and whether they're calling themselves some aso or they're putting a new You know, label on the uniform. I'm... but Hamas is a certain control and they have weapons. are AND they're going to continue to grow in those areas. So it's very difficult for me to imagine that some kind of magical. and force is going to come in and agree to gun battles with Hamas. and achieve that. I think there has to be a broader reconciliation. on the Israeli Palestinian issue. I think the two-state solution is not dead yet, but it is severely. wounded. and there's going to have to be some kind of. uh... understanding of how the Palestinians govern themselves outside of international control But I think it's very different. difficult.
  • Can you speak to this issue, which is, and we were talking about it around the table during commercial break. You know. I, for example, think this is an amazing historic and fabulous day. I think Joan Beckey do too, having said that. you know, you go online and the... response is as negative as negative. could be about Israel. and about it. reputation of the country. Frankly, about Jews, I mean, it's all wrapped up together. and I wonder... to the extent you were thinking about that, how... how you think that. changes or does and change under these circumstances.
    Unknown Speaker
  • Amos Hochstein
    Look, I think you have these. There are a couple of things I would say. One... It's devastating to CF. two years since the horrific events of October 7. that is yours and one that is isolated around the world. And part of that is to some degree in overreach in how they executed the war, especially in the last nine months. civilian toll is very very high. Um... But there's always going to be a double standard when it comes to...
  • to Israel. Why do you say that? There's always going to be double standard.
    Host
  • Amos Hochstein
    because there always has been, look, we... it attracts the attention. conflict in Israel and around. Israel attract the attention like no other conflict does. Um... This is not what aboutism. There is a conflict in Sudan that is devastating. with tens of thousands of hundreds of thousands of casualties of grain and so on. They're all comforts around the world. This one captures the imagination. around the world in every part of the world. And so there's always going to be this fascination with it and a much bigger attention given to it. But look, I think that we have to focus on the fact that People were marching down the streets demanding for a ceasefire now. are demanding for the water end. The war is now ended. uh... for now at least the ceasefire is there and... People should be happy, those who... We're calling for it should be out in the street celebrating as you said they are for some reason not doing that. Right. That's strum what a bizarre to me.
  • I can, you know, I've seen the list. Let's see the list on Twitter of the Hollywood types that... That'll work. not a word they were so animated about. Let me ask you one more thing. almost because there was some tepid praise for some former Biden officials Jake Sullivan that yeah well time and circumstance finally happened for Trump where our original deal that we had. is finally getting done because of time and circumstance. And I understand that how that can happen. Do you think that? I don't know what happened to Iran's proxies. What happened in Syria? What happened? uh ... in ..... and all the things that we've seen that have sort of compromised. end. window 4. in terms of steps at the United States and Israel is taking don't you think that this became a lot more likely and possible. given some. proactive things that the Trump administration did in support of his room.
    Host
  • Amos Hochstein
    Look, I think that there was a lot of pressure on Israel, and there was a lot of pressure on... on Hamas. I think that. There is never one reason why things happen. And I've been... I've been... Pretty, uh... open about the fact that I think that the negotiators here Jared and Steve have done. an excellent job. and getting this. out. There are a number of phases to this. One was in when their attack happened. The Biden administration myself included. Um... We were determined to make sure that Iran did not fire a bunch of missiles that Hamas, that his ball did not come into the war at that time. We send out enormous amount of military. U.S. military capability to the Middle East to defend Israel to save Israel from. for the destruction. is all that looked very different on October 8th than it does today. We had the ceasefire with Lebanon that I negotiated. that is the Sun degree models. for how the governing of the relationship between Hamas, Gaza and Israel. post-seasifier now is going to happen. The proxies were weakened dramatically. already then. I think there is a feeling that in January there was a ceasefire in place. It was achieved right on the scene between the Biden and Trump administration. and that. perhaps that could have been.
  • Uh...
    Host
  • Amos Hochstein
    turned into the from Nendil at that time. and I think that's probably true. and the last eight months of delay in that. that I don't blame the Trump administration. I think Israel walked away from that ceasefire. at that time and did not want to implement it. that cost the lives of a lot more people. and delayed. not only the piece, the ceasefire. but also cause a lot of harm for Israel's reputation around the world. I'm now I think the government administration finally understood especially after the... up the tack and do how that. There needs to be a change in this has to come to an end, and the pressure was given, and both parties had to. compromise. I hope that this now holds, but I give credit to the Trump administration, but I also think that this is a continuum. of. of what's happened over the last two years. since the horrific events that are literally. just were right on the anniversary of two years ago.
  • of. of the appointment. We talk you about oil. all the time obviously well but was under sixty for a while today and I was gonna just needle you'll let it you think I was How much is the SPR still depleted, maybe? We should buy it back because we'll be buying it back now almost. Would you suggest that the cell high by low? Is that a sound like a good idea?
    Host
  • Amos Hochstein
    So we have to download, absolutely. They should be buying and they should be buying it into the SPR so that we have it for the next time. There's a crisis. Look the one thing we know about all markets is whenever it's going down really low, it's going to come back up at some point at some day. Well, the man is still dry, it's still high. Um... but we're by the way. The oil price has a large impact on what's going to happen in Kasa. the ability of other Arab states to be able to support and to rebuild a trillion dollars of what's going to be necessary in Gaza. at $60 a barrel is quite difficult. But I would buy back into the SPR.
  • But... I just want to get to your, I get to... You put out a strong bio at all, I'm gonna thank you. Appreciate it.
    Host
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