Asks about Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson prediction that weak payrolls (bad news) could be good for stocks in a 'good is bad/bad is good' regime.
Matt Miller
Kate Moore
Acknowledges sentiment is tepid and there have been rotations, but sees plenty of reasons for strong nominal growth in 2026. Labor market data suggests strength, and tax receipts indicate people/companies have money.
Questions if more Fed rate cuts are needed, noting the 10-year yield has remained stable despite past cuts.
Matt Miller
Kate Moore
Monetary policy works with lags. Sees signs of stability and regional strength. It's not a slam dunk the Fed cuts at every meeting in Q1 2026. Believes inflation will stay 'spicy' near 3%, making the Fed's decision harder.
Asks if underperforming sectors (real estate, staples, energy, discretionary) will pick up in 2026, referencing 'dogs of the Dow' theory.
Matt Miller
Kate Moore
Does not want to rotate for rotation's sake. Some underperformers have incredibly weak fundamentals relative to tech. Focused on strongest earnings growth trajectories.
Asks if the M&A and IPO boom continues into 2026 given economic tailwinds.
Matt Miller
Kate Moore
Capital markets activity will pick up in 2026. Notes a disconnect between solid capital markets activity and concerns about economic weakness. In a weakening environment, companies don't come to market.
Asks if the economy can do well without the Fed cutting rates.
Matt Miller
Kate Moore
The economy and markets can do well without additional rate cuts. The ideal positioning is for inflation near 2% with strong growth, but Citi sees prices elevated near 3%.
Asks if commodity-driven inflation will continue.
Matt Miller
Kate Moore
Yes, inflation will continue. Added more gold to portfolios as a ballast, not just for price appreciation, to build resilience. Also constructive on commodities, seeing upstream AI/tech plays as a way to broaden the theme.
Asks if the economy is strong enough to overcome higher commodity prices and rates.
Matt Miller
Kate Moore
Yes, data suggests higher commodity prices and slightly higher inflation can be absorbed. No cracks in the story yet, but recognizes consensus risk.
Asks about regional investing, noting Europe's recent outperformance.
Matt Miller
Kate Moore
Focus is on fundamentally-driven outperformance in emerging markets, especially emerging Asia and China, not multiple expansion in Europe. US has the strongest and most consistent earnings trajectory.