Asks response to ceasefire and how much to buy into it.
Host
Julian Emanuel
Sigh of relief; hedging in stocks/credit/bonds (bearish) and oil (bullish) at pandemic extremes; unprecedented collective hedging.
Relief has staying power but details matter.
Asks if tradable upside concentrated in US vs Europe/Asia.
Host
Julian Emanuel
Europe relief larger due to oil price impact; bull market since Oct 2022 continues; tech leads; fall in yields endorses higher multiple equities.
US tech has been leading theme.
Asks about inflationary understanding given oil/yields not back to Feb 27 levels.
Host
Julian Emanuel
Structural change in oil takes years; Brent mid-high $80s, WTI low-mid $80s; fine for stocks as oil reliance has diminished.
Not material headwind for growth/equities.
Asks about earnings as linchpin.
Host
Julian Emanuel
Earnings revised higher; >11% growth projected for 2006; double-digit earnings growth historically powerful (market up 10/11 years since 1996).
Below consensus but strong.