Divergence between experts warning of 13M bpd disruption and 80 damaged facilities taking 2-3 years to repair versus market pricing end of conflict based on peace talks.

Market participants are pricing endgame for war, but unclear who will lead Thursday talks.

Blockade announcement aims to pressure China to convince Iran to take deal; China previously bought aggressively for strategic stockpiles.

Question is how much economic pain China feels and whether they'll pressure Iran.

Divergence between screen prices and physical barrel costs will converge to much higher prices; limited window until ceasefire expires April 21st.

If no deal by April 21st, market will realize serious outage as summer driving season approaches with no barrels moving through Strait of Hormuz.