Kristalina Georgieva
All roads go into higher inflation, slower growth, but magnitude depends on ceasefire durability and infrastructure damage
This shock is a negative supply shock that pushes prices up
Kristalina Georgieva
Central bank intervention depends on shock duration - short duration mild impact, long duration requires intervention and worsens growth
Longer duration causes inflation to flash red signs requiring central banks to step in
Kristalina Georgieva
Growth upgrade minimal - only 0.1% lift before, now presenting three scenarios based on conflict factors
Kristalina Georgieva
Crisis is global but asymmetric - oil importers hit hardest, exporters like US protected, poor countries in tough spot
Countries in zone of hostilities hit most; oil importers far away can't get needed quantities