I find it more useful to look at scenarios. Asia is vulnerable but has long-term prospects. The question is what we are doing in the immediate term to deal with these disruptions.

We need to brief our population. This is serious, could get worse. I'm not even sure the markets are fully pricing the worst-case scenario. From where I sit, I can think of a lot worse scenarios.

Singapore has zero native oil/gas. Over 95% of electricity is from natural gas. With LNG terminals, we have access to the global market. We will have to pay the full international going rate, and that price is likely to be high.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens in 24 hours, there has been damage to LNG infrastructure which will take months and even years to restore. This global shortfall is sticky, not resolved in 24 hours.

Once you get a significant rise in energy prices, central banks will be concerned about the stickiness of inflation. From energy you get food, transport, services. Even for AI, one key cost factor is energy. We are in a completely different risk profile. My message is to be prepared.

We mustn't assume that even if we do everything right in Singapore, it will always be serene. This global disruption is going to change everything and make it much harder for all of us. Never assume buffers will insulate you completely.