• Introduces Paul Hickey and asks if the S&P 500's rapid move from oversold to overbought is due to Trump's 'taco trade' (escalate to de-escalate) regarding Iran.
    Crystal
  • Paul Hickey
    Attributes market optimism to collective relief that the Iran conflict won't drag on, pointing to the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Notes the market is erasing February losses.
    Highlights the NASDAQ's 13-day winning streak, comparing its magnitude only to post-2008 and post-COVID rebounds, but occurring at 52-week highs.
  • Asks if the market's breadth and power will finally expand, given charts show a narrow market.
    Louis
  • Paul Hickey
    Acknowledges narrow breadth in the rebound, with MAG7 leading, partly due to a rush of capital into big liquid names. Expects the rally to broaden over time.
    Cites that before the war, the average S&P 500 stock was outperforming, with more stocks up 20% than down 20% in Q1.
  • Asks if the lagging cumulative Advance-Decline line will catch up to the S&P 500's new high.
    Louis
  • Paul Hickey
    Believes the AD line will catch up. It peaked before the war, and the pause was due to uncertainty causing investors to rein in bets, especially in less liquid names.
    Says to call him in two weeks if it hasn't caught up, but views the lag as a short-term dislocation.
  • Asks Paul to explain his 'triple play' stocks (beating earnings, revenue, and raising guidance).
    Crystal
  • Paul Hickey
    Defines a triple play. Says raising guidance is most impressive in uncertain times. Compares current season to last year's 'tariff tantrum,' where more companies raised than lowered guidance.
    Expects good guidance due to strong economic numbers: rising earnings forecasts, 10% bank loan growth (highest since post-2008), strong ISM/regional Fed reports, and a tight labor market (4.3% unemployment, low jobless claims).
  • Paul Hickey
    Highlights Planet Labs as a triple play example: satellite imagery, just turned cash flow positive, expects 30%+ revenue growth, hit 'Rule of 40' early.
  • Asks how Paul selects his 'Bespoke 50' stocks that historically beat the market.
    Louis
  • Paul Hickey
    Uses a simple process: screens for strong earnings growth prospects and positive chart formations within the Russell 3000.
    Emphasizes that success isn't just in tech; there are great companies in arcane fields.
  • Asks where market strength is outside of data center/AI stocks.
    Louis
  • Paul Hickey
    Long-term: Likes industrials benefiting from US re-industrialization and energy independence. Short-term: Sees potential in consumer stocks, as sentiment is overly negative.
    Notes energy is only ~3% of consumer spending (per JPMorgan), and highlights Starbucks (turnaround) and Shake Shack (long-term growth) as examples.
  • Notes the Russell beating major indices is a good sign, small caps are more domestic, and the US economy is stronger. Points to $9.5T in foreign Treasury holdings as evidence capital is flowing to the US.
    Louis
  • Paul Hickey
    Comments on the 'sell America' trade being dead, referencing Trump at Davos.
  • Paul Hickey
    Highlights the divergence between negative media headlines on Iran and the rising market since March 30th, arguing front-page news is already priced in.
  • Says we're in earnings season with the strongest analyst revisions in five years, led by Taiwan Semi, and expects more excitement ahead.
    Louis
  • Paul Hickey
    Notes that while Nvidia has been sideways, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is up 40% in six months, showing strong participation beyond the largest name.
  • Asks Paul to summarize his top stock picks.
    Crystal
  • Paul Hickey
    Names Planet Labs, Shake Shack, Starbucks, and adds Airbnb. Argues platform companies like Airbnb have strong network effects and are undervalued, trading at market multiples for above-market growth.
  • Asks if this year has the potential to be as good as 1999.
    Louis
  • Paul Hickey
    Draws a parallel: ChatGPT's launch to AI is like Netscape's to the internet. Overlaying NASDAQ charts puts us in early 1998, suggesting more upside is possible, albeit with a potentially rockier road.
    Notes that in 1996/97, headlines constantly called it a bubble on new highs and declared it burst on 5% pullbacks, yet the market kept going. Believes there's 'probably more gas in this tank.'
  • Argues valuations are supported by strong earnings, citing his small-cap portfolio's P/E of 4.9x.
    Louis
  • Paul Hickey
    Agrees, noting P/E ratios have fallen due to rising earnings estimates, not just price changes.
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