Market recovery reflects expectations the war will be short. The AI narrative is driving markets. Oil is a tax on the consumer, but high tax refunds are supporting spending.

We are only six weeks into conflict. The ceasefire still has seven days to go.

Benefits to waiting on banks due to uncertainty from Goldman's results. Geopolitical environment makes us cautious about deal activity offsetting fixed income weakness.

The surprise United-American merger talk suggests pricing discipline in airlines, which were already high before the oil spike. Consumer resilience is evident as planes are full and ticket prices remain high.

We see a healthy broadening of the market beyond tech. The Fed views oil price impact as temporary and will likely pause, but we still expect rate cuts later.

Powell has been clear that oil prices are a temporary inflationary impact.