We're waking up to $100 oil. What are oil traders thinking about now?
David
Stephen Kaczynski
The main focus is how long this lasts. Initial expectation was a short conflict, but now with strikes hitting wider region, fears are growing about impact on infrastructure like oil tanks and refineries.
How quickly does this recede if we get a quick off-ramp? Can supply come back quickly?
Ivan Man
Stephen Kaczynski
Shutting down production isn't easy to bring back. It can take days, weeks, or months depending on the asset. Restarting facilities requires special people and equipment.
Could the pain spread to other energy commodities like electricity and coal?
David
Stephen Kaczynski
Yes, all energy markets are interconnected. Coal prices are rising, Japanese power futures up 20-30%, LPG prices rising, gas supply to fertilizer plants curtailed risking fertilizer price increases.