Market is repricing a more prolonged conflict in Middle East. Too early to assess whether we'll see persistent oil price shocks.
What's your base case for how long this lasts?
David
Sylvia Sheng
Very difficult to talk about base case given fluid situation. Compared to last week, definitely longer than people were pricing in.
Why is dollar suddenly preferred haven and not gold?
Ivan Man
Sylvia Sheng
Positioning plays important role. People were positioned for weaker dollar due to fading US growth advantage and monetary policy divergence. Safe haven bid now pushing up dollar.
Do we need to put Asia selloff in context of how oil affects fundamentals?
David
Sylvia Sheng
Asia as whole likely to experience more negative terms of trade shock. 10% increase in oil prices widens Asia's current account deficit by 30 basis points.