Market seems to be 'shooting first and asking questions later.' Uncertainty remains if the Strait of Hormuz is more open; need to see weekend developments.

Iran continues to require IRGC approval for ships, following similar routes as recent weeks.

Near-term prediction is difficult, could be a tenuous ceasefire. Medium-term, all parties have an interest in reopening the Strait as the global economy cannot absorb a prolonged closure.

Ultimately expects Strait to reopen, with near-term downside for equities but medium-term upside. Commodities (global gas, diesel) will stay elevated, benefiting midstream players, integrated oils, and US refiners.

Stocks may have overreacted to the downside. Even before the conflict, the oil market was moving from oversupplied to balanced/undersupplied due to plateauing US shale and slowing non-OPEC production.

Adds a higher, sustained geopolitical risk premium from the conflict. Believes medium-term oil price expectations should be reset higher. Investors previously assumed ~$60 WTI, now likely pricing in ~$70, which is seen as correct.

Recommends TotalEnergies (high ROCE, growth), Marathon Petroleum (exposure to strong West Coast cracks), and Cheniere (exposure to elevated global gas prices).

Expects global gas prices to stay elevated even if Hormuz reopens, as it will take time for Middle East flows to resume.