This is at least a pointer to the nightmare scenario that's been there for half a century, ever since Iran erupted in revolution. At the scale we're seeing now, there's nothing comparable to it.

A nightmare scenario would be a war that goes on a long time, a disruption that goes on a long time. Prices really skyrocketing – 90 is high, but it's not skyrocketing – with major impacts on financial markets and ultimately the world economy plummeting into a recession.

Countries are running out of storage. The integrated system from pumping oil to shipping it to markets isn't working now; it's bottled up. The only thing to do then is cut back production.

Everything points to higher prices. Where the limit is really depends upon event and duration. Does this go on a week? Does this go on a month? That has different consequences. You have lost 20% of world oil, you've lost 20% of LNG.

We have resilience we didn't have a decade or two ago because the U.S. is now the world's largest oil producer. There are alternatives and strategic stocks. The Saudi have an east-west network that can move oil to the Red Sea.