Asks about 2026 leadership and whether there's a sea change away from Big Tech, referencing Ed Yardeni's call.
Lisa
Christian Nolting
We still count on tech to deliver earnings. Earnings growth is coming down a bit, which is healthy. Companies that don't deliver in 2026 will get punished, causing volatility. AI is not a bubble; it's a structural change, so we are constructive for next year.
Asks if the US is still the epicenter of constructive change or if that is poised to change.
Lisa
Christian Nolting
US productivity is highest and I don't think that's massively changing next year. Europe is far behind. To catch up on US productivity is very tricky, at least in the short term.
Notes his research points to US government stimulus timed after three Fed cuts. Asks if the Fed needs to cut anymore next year.
Annmarie
Christian Nolting
I wouldn't be surprised if we see three cuts, starting this week, then two more into next year. That could be justified because the US is in a weaker spot. Inflation remains a topic. We think 10-year yields could be 4.15% in 12 months. We don't see inflation substantially coming down but even go up slightly from 2.8% to 2.9%.
Asks about policy delivering a cyclical impulse in Europe, given struggling data from China.
Annmarie
Christian Nolting
Looks at Germany, expects growth to 1.3-1.5% next year due to fiscal policy. Expects ECB to stay steady at 2% for all of 2026.
Asks how much his constructive outlook is predicated on fiscal and monetary support in the US and globally.
Lisa
Christian Nolting
It's a major source of growth. In the US and Germany with fiscal policy. Central banks as well: Bank of Japan we expect two hikes, but otherwise more than 80 cuts from global central banks. That's quite a constructive environment.
Asks at what point debt markets will be exhausted by financing M&A, especially in tech/AI.
Lisa
Christian Nolting
Haven't seen bond auctions struggling. There's a lot of demand. Given discussion about sovereign debt, people look at corporate bonds, especially investment grade with attractive yield. If no recession, it's still an interesting investment.
Asks for his highest conviction trade heading into next year.
Lisa
Christian Nolting
I would say gold on the one hand. Corporate bonds look very interesting. On equity side, with all the fiscal policy, it could be constructive, but don't expect the same double-digit performance. I would be okay with high single digits, 8 to 9%.