• Asks about 2026 leadership and whether there's a sea change away from Big Tech, referencing Ed Yardeni's call.
    Lisa
  • Christian Nolting
    We still count on tech to deliver earnings. Earnings growth is coming down a bit, which is healthy. Companies that don't deliver in 2026 will get punished, causing volatility. AI is not a bubble; it's a structural change, so we are constructive for next year.
  • Asks if the US is still the epicenter of constructive change or if that is poised to change.
    Lisa
  • Christian Nolting
    US productivity is highest and I don't think that's massively changing next year. Europe is far behind. To catch up on US productivity is very tricky, at least in the short term.
  • Notes his research points to US government stimulus timed after three Fed cuts. Asks if the Fed needs to cut anymore next year.
    Annmarie
  • Christian Nolting
    I wouldn't be surprised if we see three cuts, starting this week, then two more into next year. That could be justified because the US is in a weaker spot. Inflation remains a topic. We think 10-year yields could be 4.15% in 12 months. We don't see inflation substantially coming down but even go up slightly from 2.8% to 2.9%.
  • Asks about policy delivering a cyclical impulse in Europe, given struggling data from China.
    Annmarie
  • Christian Nolting
    Looks at Germany, expects growth to 1.3-1.5% next year due to fiscal policy. Expects ECB to stay steady at 2% for all of 2026.
  • Asks how much his constructive outlook is predicated on fiscal and monetary support in the US and globally.
    Lisa
  • Christian Nolting
    It's a major source of growth. In the US and Germany with fiscal policy. Central banks as well: Bank of Japan we expect two hikes, but otherwise more than 80 cuts from global central banks. That's quite a constructive environment.
  • Asks at what point debt markets will be exhausted by financing M&A, especially in tech/AI.
    Lisa
  • Christian Nolting
    Haven't seen bond auctions struggling. There's a lot of demand. Given discussion about sovereign debt, people look at corporate bonds, especially investment grade with attractive yield. If no recession, it's still an interesting investment.
  • Asks for his highest conviction trade heading into next year.
    Lisa
  • Christian Nolting
    I would say gold on the one hand. Corporate bonds look very interesting. On equity side, with all the fiscal policy, it could be constructive, but don't expect the same double-digit performance. I would be okay with high single digits, 8 to 9%.
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