Bitcoin has recouped $70k and outperformed even during equity risk-off periods. What's driving this?
Sam
Jim Carioli
Bitcoin's resilience stems from hitting a potential bottom near its 200-week moving average ($60k) in early February, followed by organic recovery with ETF inflows, improved options positioning, and on-chain activity.
Jim Carioli
Recent perpetual futures market showed excessive short demand (negative funding rates), creating risk of short liquidations which pushed Bitcoin to $76k. We're not very bullish, but the bottom may be in.
Is capital flight from the Middle East (UAE) part of the story?
Sam
Jim Carioli
We've seen rotation from other assets. The fall rally in gold/silver/precious metals was momentum-driven, not fundamental. Bitcoin didn't fail as a store of value.
What about the Clarity Act and recent SEC/CFTC guidance?
Sam
Jim Carioli
Clarity Act is stalled, but SEC/CFTC issued new guidance shifting focus from token to transaction intent, creating a taxonomy. Most crypto (digital commodities, collectibles, utility tokens, stablecoins) are NOT securities.