T-bill issuance exploded from $100B/week in 2013 to $550B/week now due to structural deficits and inability to term out debt without pushing 10-year yields to 4.6-4.8% which would trigger equity volatility
Luke Groman
Higher bill issuance drives TGA growth, which crowds out repo markets and threatens funding for hedge funds engaged in basis trade who own $1.8T in treasuries (37% of net issuance since 2022)
Luke Groman
Standing repo facility acts as front-end yield curve control, funding deficits on margin and preventing chaotic unwind of basis trade
Luke Groman
Fiscal dominance in US is not deflationary - retirees should own physical gold and reduce long-term bond exposure to avoid wealth erosion
Luke Groman
Gold just surpassed treasuries in global FX reserves for first time in 30 years and will likely surpass dollar reserves within 2-3 years due to central bank buying and commodity market pressure
Luke Groman
Brazil central bank buying significant gold shows BRICS moving to gold as reserve currency, not Bitcoin or currency baskets