States yields could change substantially over the next couple of weeks if there's a belief the conflict will be longer-lasting.

Notes yields were under 4% when conflict started and are now around 4.28-4.30, with the increase not due to inflation expectations because the market views the conflict as temporary (days to a month).

If the risk premium from threats to shipping and oil production becomes more permanent, inflation expectations will kick in and interest rates will move higher.

Clarifies he's not talking about the war being permanent, but about lasting risk premiums that would require higher premiums in all markets.