• Back to your money and your portfolio. Jed Ellerbroek is with us, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management. How do you feel about the market?
    Host
  • Jed Ellerbroek
    I think the market continues to do well, mostly on the back of AI. We have a fairly slow growth economy. Consumer spending is rising slowly, relying more on high-income folks to support growth. Business investment is hanging in there and corporate earnings growth remains double digits. Throw interest rate cuts on top, and things look pretty good.
  • How do you provide cushion for some volatility?
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  • Jed Ellerbroek
    One way is investing in healthcare sector stocks like Danaher and Medpace which are economically insensitive. If AI spending pauses or the economy slows, their drug development-driven business will continue to perform. Valuations are attractive especially for Danaher.
  • What about Blackstone?
    Host
  • Jed Ellerbroek
    Blackstone is like gas for your portfolio. Depends on capital markets, prefers lower interest rates benefiting from open IPO markets and tight credit spreads. Investing heavily in AI data centers with strong outlook.
  • What do you look for in investment managers?
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  • Jed Ellerbroek
    Track record of strong fundraising, good investment performance, shareholder-friendly capital allocation including dividends. Blackstone fits well.
  • Do you like Taiwan Semi and Nvidia?
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  • Jed Ellerbroek
    Yes, Nvidia is largest position. AI infrastructure investment remains feverish with demand for AI compute well above supply. CapEx spending by hyperscalers and neo clouds is rising. Nvidia is a top idea for next couple years.
  • What is your base case for the market? Jamie Dimon estimates 30% chance correction.
    Host
  • Jed Ellerbroek
    Jamie Dimon tends to be conservative and focused on downside, I take his comments with grain of salt. I expect AI to continue leading market with spending and token usage doubling every couple of months. Big tech AI leaders, including Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, will continue leading the market.
  • What about bonds for risk-averse investors?
    Host
  • Jed Ellerbroek
    For investors with time horizon beyond five years, equities are probably better than bonds despite volatility. Nvidia example shows big drawdowns but strong overall gains this year. Stomach volatility and invest long term in equities.
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