Senator Tillis won't approve Powell replacement due to fiscal dominance pressure, logjamming Trump's agenda. No $2,000 tariff rebate check votes. Risk of government shutdown needing 8-10 Republican votes.

Supreme Court tariff decision is binary (on/off). 65-80% odds struck down. Corporations can't absorb tariffs anymore, will pass to consumers, increasing prices. Best for Trump to let tariffs be removed to juice economy before midterms and fight inflation.

Biggest concern is Trump's $1.5T defense investment. Defense spending up 50%, requires equal non-defense discretionary increase, widening deficit. Critical for bond markets watching 2026 and Jan 30 government shutdown.