Current flows through Hormuz are extremely minimal (less than 10 ships/day vs. pre-war 135). Despite positive diplomatic development, immediate impact will be limited due to disagreements about risk allocation, safety concerns about mines, and lack of insurance confidence.

We need to see confidence among insurance companies to extend insurance to ships transiting through.

War scars are priced more in physical than paper markets. Insurance premiums and structural changes (Asian buyers diversifying away from Persian Gulf, longer shipping routes) will maintain higher prices. Recovery won't be as quick as paper market speculators assume.

Asian buyers have seen what it means to rely on one source of energy and will want to diversify. Longer hauls translate into higher freight prices.