Asks if the recent bond market turmoil is a 'Yippee Treasury Market' showing fault lines, sparked by fiscal concerns from Japan.
Vonnie Quinn
Priya Misra
Describes the selloff as a 'perfect storm' of cross-currents: lingering Fed independence concerns, the Japan yield move sparking global term premium repricing, and fiscal (Sell America) worries, exacerbated by lower liquidity and geopolitical risk.
Priya Misra
Points to calming factors: stability in Japanese bond markets, strong corporate bond demand, and solid US economic fundamentals (strong resilient economy, inflation heading lower).
Priya Misra
Views the selloff as an opportunity to take on duration risk while keeping credit exposure, as fundamentals remain strong.
Questions when the bond market stops believing calming officials and asks for evidence.
Vonnie Quinn
Priya Misra
Reiterates fundamentals are solid. If inflation behaves and no major new fiscal expansion occurs, she sees the selloff as an opportunity and expects yields to calm down and stay in a range (3.75% to 4.25% on the 10-year).
Asks about Fed credibility ahead of the FOMC and potential surprises.
Vonnie Quinn
Priya Misra
Expects little from the Fed meeting, as the 'easy risk management rate cuts are done' and the Fed is on hold. Believes Fed credibility has strengthened due to strong pushback on independence.
Asks about the next big risk catalyst.
Vonnie Quinn
Priya Misra
Will watch jobs, inflation data, and corporate issuance. Expects strong demand for fixed income due to income and diversification, but notes rising dispersion within credit markets requiring careful security selection.